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Insights

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What can be learnt from the crucial tight state election in Mexico?

SUMMARY: The PRI just maintained control of the governorship of Edomex, the most populous state in Mexico. This was the last local election before next year’s presidential election, which is (unofficially) on. From now on, all “policy” will gradually be replaced by “politics”. Morena’s loss leaves the coin up in the air. […]

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Captura

Kenya hoping for a peaceful and transparent election season

In the first in a series of insights in the run-up to the Kenyan election in August, Speyside’s Maina Kamau takes a look at the key players and issues framing the race for the Presidency. Kenyan politics has been characterized by ethnic tensions ever since independence in 1963, but it […]

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What next for Brazil?

Photo: Reuters What happened On the evening of May 17th, “O Globo” newspaper, one of Brazil’s largest newspapers, leaked parts of an audio transcription. The audio allegedly involved President Michel Temer in a cover-up scheme to bribe the former House of Representatives Speaker, Eduardo Cunha, to remain quiet while he […]

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Argentina National Congress building facade on sunset.

Unions begin to take the centre stage again in Argentina

With the beginning of March seeing the return of congress from its summer recess and Argentines back to work, the relative calm that has been bestowed on Macri since taking office in 2015 gave way to a return of mass unionised protest across Argentina earlier in March. Public school teachers, […]

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Closeup of the flags of the North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA members on textile texture. NAFTA is the world's largest trade bloc and the member countries are Canada, United States and Mexico. 3D rendering with detailed textured grunge effect on closeup.

NAFTA: a view from Mexico

Forget the Wall. The future of NAFTA has been the no.1 bilateral issue between the USA and Mexico since Donald Trump was elected US President. During the campaign Mr. Trump labelled NAFTA “the worst trade deal ever…” and said the agreement must be renegotiated or annulled. In Mexico, President Peña […]

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Speyside’s Predictions for 2017

With 2016 likely to be the answer to any future ‘In what year..?’ general knowledge quiz question, it would be quite the understatement to have called the events of 2016 unpredictable as we look ahead to what 2017 might bring. From Brexit and the US election to more localised events […]

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Concept clean energy with flag of Argentina merged with wind turbine in a blue sunny sky

Argentina’s bright spot

The unanimous decision made by Argentina Supreme Court’s on August 18th to block the government’s increase on natural gas and electrical bills and cap price increases at up to 400% for households and 500% for companies may have been celebrated by the end consumer, but has acted a major political […]

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Zambia’s elections: The aftermath

By Archimedes Muzenda Zambia’s 2016 Presidential and Parliamentary elections ended in a tight race with the incumbent president declared the winner of the elections. President Edgar Lungu of the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) party secured 50.35% of the vote against Hakainde Hichilema of the opposition United Party for National Development […]

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Zambia

Spotlight on Zambia..

By Archimedes Muzenda Ahead of its Presidential and National Assembly elections on the 11th of August, we take a close look at Zambia, one of sub-Saharan Africa’s most urbanized yet commodity-reliant countries. This is Zambia’s first election since new constitutional ratifications early this year and is destined to be its […]

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Lima, Peru: Government Palace , Residence of the President ,known as House of Pizarro in the Historic Centre of Lima, Unesco World Heritage Site,

Presidential elections in Peru: What awaits PPK?

By Carolina Santos – Consultant, Peru Until a week ago, the most respected local pollsters showed Keiko Fujimori – the leader of the Fuerza Popular Party and daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, now in prison for corruption and crimes against humanity – as being the winner in the second […]

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Brazil Cover

Like a Candle in the Wind? The Brazilian Oil and Gas Sector

Executive summary This Insight think piece is dated 25th May, and written after the Brazilian Senate had suspended President Dilma Rousseff (who currently remains in office but without power). At the time of writing, Vice President Temer has assumed power as Acting President and has formed a government that is […]

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Argentina and its crucial months ahead

The 22nd of April marked the first full day of trading of Argentina’s mammoth $16.5bn bond issue, the largest ever by an emerging markets nation, and signalled the country’s emergence from the shadows into euphoric interest from foreign investors, who oversubscribed the issue by 5 times. President Macri had moved […]

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Brazil Healthcare

Brazilian Healthcare: Opportunities for foreign investors

Executive summary Brazil has the fifth largest population on Earth with 206 million people1 and the seventh largest GDP with USD 2 trillion.2 In spite of the current economic crisis, it still figures as a regional power and is definitely a player which cannot be ignored in the global healthcare […]

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Dilma

“Brazil’s Black Wednesday”

After at least a week of negotiations, former Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (‘Lula’) accepted yesterday morning president Dilma Rousseff’s invitation to join the government as a minister. This morning, Lula took office as Chief Cabinet (Casa Civil) minister, the most important ministry in the Brazilian Executive: the […]

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Set of Iran flags in Front of Tehran Skyline and one large flag in the background at sunset with orange warm tone.

Iran: Land of Immense Current Opportunity

By Micheal Wyatt – Senior Consultant Iran is a dominant power broker in the Middle East, vying with Saudi Arabia and Turkey for influence across the Middle East. Despite its reputation, it is a reasonably stable country and enjoys friendly relations with its immediate neighbors, although not of course with […]

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San Jose, Costa Rica - January 18, 2015: Night scene of the square in front of the National Theatre of Costa Rica in San Jose at twilight time.

Costa Rica’s Municipal Elections: What You Need to Know

(Taken from the Diplomatic Courier: link) As Costa Rica approaches its upcoming round of municipal elections this Sunday, it is easy to overlook them in favour of more pressing or glamorous world events, such as the primary elections for the November US presidential election, and the debilitating spread of the […]

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shutterstock_105329711 MxSenate

Mexico´s Investment Climate: The Least of Emerging Troubles

From the vantage point of the developed world, Mexico is often seen as a Wild Wild West with beautiful beaches. Most people miss the burgeoning and diversified economy that it has become, attractive to foreign investment, with increased FDI and low inflation rates. Mexico now hosts a large number of […]

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Speyside’s Predictions for Latin America in 2016

In what has proved to be a challenging 2015 for Latin America and emerging markets, resulting in an increase in political and economic instability, Speyside’s senior team have gathered round and put their minds to the test for the fourth edition of our annual predictions and what should be expected […]

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World

How TPP changes Latin America

    While the member state domestic political wrangling is to come, most notably in the US Congress, 2015 was a year that finally saw twelve Pacific economies reach agreement on a mammoth free-trade deal, the Trans Pacific Partnership (‘TPP’), slated to come into force by 2018.1 These twelve, all […]

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Six things to know about the impeachment in Brazil

1. What happened in the Brazilian Congress this week? The President (Speaker) of the House of Representatives, or Lower House, Eduardo Cunha, moved to accept a request to investigate whether President Dilma’s should be impeached. Congressman Cunha is from PMDB, the largest party in President Dilma’s coalition. However, Cunha also […]

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Petro

Reputation Matters: foreign firms facing Petrobras corruption charges

By Stephen Lock 03/12/2015 At a closed conference recently, I was listening to Brazil’s ‘super judge’, Sergio Moro, talk about his extraordinary investigations that have so transfigured the Brazilian political and business environment. Moro who exposed the Lava jato Petrobras corruption scandal, was greeted at this conference like a rock […]

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What do the recent national elections mean for Poland’s economy?

Poland’s main opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS), easily defeated the ruling centrist Civic Platform majority in the country’s parliamentary elections on October 25, 2015. The party’s influential leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, nominated a relatively unknown coalminer’s daughter and PiS loyalist, Beata Szydło, prime minister. PiS’s win marks a comeback for […]

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Argentina Decides

With campaigning having been ramped up in recent days towards this Sunday’s (October 25th) presidential elections, we ask how the leading candidates are positioned as Argentina prepares to go to the polls. The polls, although as reliable as the economic statistics that emanate from the country, have recently indicated that […]

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PEMEX Explosion

On April 1, a processing platform owned and operated by the Mexican state-run oil company PEMEX in the Gulf of Mexico near the coast of Campeche, exploded killing four workers and injuring 45. One week later, some of the injured workers are still in intensive care. Others dived into the […]

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VP of Brazil chosen as leader of political coordination: will this provide relief or is the government headed over the cliff?

Brazil?s President Dilma Rousseff recently appointed Michel Temer, her Vice President, as the person responsible for political coordination within the government. Amid the political crisis which threatens to paralyze Congress, Rousseff?s appointment seems to be a risky strategy. On one hand, Temer is well-respected within the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party […]

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Water Scarcity in Latin America

Latin America is world renowned for some of its majestic landscapes, rich biodiversity, and plenty of natural resources. The region is also quite rightly known for its abundance of water (over 30% of the planet?s freshwater). Local governments have recognized the importance that water can have in creating conditions for […]

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ILO 169 in Chile: Participation or over litigation?

The signing of ILO Convention 169 was not simply a signature on paper or a “salute to the flag,” as they say in Chile, referring to purely symbolic acts. After Chile signed the Convention on indigenous consultations in 2008, native communities in the country took the rights guaranteed by the […]

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2015 Elections in Argentina – Likely outcome and policy impact

Before the New Year, the 2015 presidential election in Argentina was already being classified as the most important in a decade and was expected to be controversial, hotly contested and potentially volatile. However, the suspicious death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman on January 18th, 2015 has catapulted this election into a […]

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Our Predictions for Latin America in 2015

Now in its third year, our regional experts? candid predictions for the coming year have become something of a tradition. And far be it from us to blow our own trumpet, but 2014 saw us proven right on all seven of last year?s predictions! But don?t ask us for any […]

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El legado que deja la Copa Mundial a Brasil

The Legacy Effects of the World Cup in Brazil

From the time Brazil won its bid to host the FIFA World Cup in 2007 to the tournament?s opening match today, the country experienced several drastic changes. When Brazil won its bid, the country was in the midst of an unprecedented economic boom and the privilege of hosting the world?s […]

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The Theory & Reality of Mexican Healthcare Reform

A draft Healthcare Reform Bill is expected to be introduced to Congress at the start of the next legislative session in September 2014. Statements by President Enrique Pe?a Nieto suggest this draft Bill will set out a blueprint for transformational reform, with a Universal Social Security System funded from general […]

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Is the conflict in Ukraine driven by Putin or the West?

As the situation in the Ukraine continues to spiral out of control and Russia appears poised to annex additional Russian-majority regions in the east of the country, the international media has by and large laid blame for the conflict at Putin?s doorstep. Buzzwords such as ?naked aggression?, ?imperialist designs?, ?empire-building? […]

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Bachelet 2.0 Valparaiso Chile

Bachelet 2.0 in Chile

Last week, Chile swore in a new government, marking a shift from the centre-right government of Sebastián Pi?era to the left-wing Michelle Bachelet, who will serve her second term as President, having preceded Pi?era from 2006 to 2010. Over the last few months, international media have focused on the social […]

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Our Predictions for Latin America 2014

Our Predictions for Latin America in 2014

This time last year, Speyside?s senior consultants huddled together, across borders and time zones, to compile a list of 13 predictions for Latin America in 2013. As always with such exercises, there is a fair amount of risk involved in making projections for the future. Some of our predictions did […]

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Chilean Political Briefing

Chilean Political Briefing

Former President Michelle Bachelet was the clear winner of the ?Nueva Mayoria? coalition (center left) presidential primary elections on Sunday, June 30th. With Pablo Longueira ? the candidate from current President

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